The purpose of this project is to produce a report on the sunspot cycle and how you developed a mathematical model of it. The report should be 2-3 pages long and include
- a graph of the data,
- your mathematical model and an explanation of the amplitude, period, phase shift and offset,
- a story of how you developed and tested it.
- A discussion on how well your model matches the data and what you could do to improve the model.
- A discussion of why or why not your model matches the current sunspot cycle.
- A prediction of the time and intensity of the next solar maximum.
- Why we should care about sunspots.
Include a list of references and pointers to further information on the subject.
Instructions
Download the data set of daily sunspot numbers since 1818 from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) http://sidc.oma.be/ and graph it. You can do this step with a partner.
Find a sinusoidal function that best matches the resultant graph. The function should take a time as input and return the predicted number of sunspots.
Check your model's accuracy by comparing the expected results with the actual results from the previous solar cycle and explain any discrepancies. Do the same with the current cycle.
Perform any additional research needed to answer the questions.
Assessment
You will be marked using a checklist of the required contents, as well as the following rubric.
| Criteria | Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Level 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Use of planning skills (e.g., generating ideas, gathering information, focusing research, organizing information) | uses planning skills with limited effectiveness | uses planning skills with some effectiveness | uses planning skills with considerable effectiveness | uses planning skills with a high degree of effectiveness |
| Use of processing skills (e.g., drawing inferences, interpreting, analyzing, synthesizing, evaluating) | uses processing skills with limited effectiveness | uses processing skills with some effectiveness | uses processing skills with considerable effectiveness | uses processing skills with a high degree of effectiveness |
| Use of critical thinking processes (e.g., research, critical analysis, critical literacy, metacognition) | uses critical thinking processes with limited effectiveness | uses critical thinking processes with some effectiveness | uses critical thinking processes with considerable effectiveness | uses critical thinking processes with a high degree of effectiveness |
| Expression and organization of ideas and information (e.g., clear expression, logical organization) | expresses and organizes ideas and information with limited effectiveness | expresses and organizes ideas and information with some effectiveness | expresses and organizes ideas and information with considerable effectiveness | expresses and organizes ideas and information with a high degree of effectiveness |